Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine?
Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine cannot be justified, but we need to explain it in order to understand how Putin’s regime works and what its endgame might be.
Dr Carlo Gallo on the "Allthingsrisk" Podcast
In a long-form podcast conversation with Ben Cattaneo, Dr Carlo Gallo covers the methodology behind political risk analysis and how this relates to decision-making, as well as the current Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As Ben wrote: “When it comes to forecasts about things that involve high degrees of ambiguity, we tend to be seduced by certainty. Geopolitics is one of those areas where forecasts and ratings abound. However, what we should be looking for (along with expertise), is clear, structured thinking relevant to our specific decisions, objectives, or circumstances.”
Kazakhstan: Challenges Ahead
On January 2 2022, peaceful protests occurred in oil-rich Western Kazakhstan against the withdrawal of price subsidies for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). LPG is widely used to fuel vehicles. Protesters soon voiced pro-democracy demands too, and protests spread across the country. In addition to peaceful protests, from January 4, Almaty and other cities also saw large-scale violence by sizeable armed groups, who took over official buildings and Almaty’s airport. After having initially encountered weak resistance, the insurrection was neutralized by January 8. To date, about 8,000 people have been detained in connection with the disorders.
Enquirisk in Durham, UK
Dr Carlo Gallo delivered a talk on "Political Risk: Analytical methods, global trends and careers" at the School of Government & International Affairs of Durham University, on 10 March 2016. The following day he was interviewed for a video recording by the Global Policy Journal.